422
WTNT35 KNHC 220257
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TAMMY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202023
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 21 2023
..TAMMY JUST NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BARBUDA
...CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 61.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR ANTIGUA, AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBUDA AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TAMMY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 61.9 WEST. TAMMY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TAMMY WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM).
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 992 MB (29.30 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TAMMY CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT45 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT5.SHTML
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RAINFALL: TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE THE FOLLOWING STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL:
LEEWARD ISLANDS: 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH STORM TOTAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES
MARTINIQUE AND DOMINICA: ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES, STORM TOTAL
MAXIMUM 6 INCHES
BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO: 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG
WITH ISOLATED MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE: STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF TAMMY
MOVES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TAMMY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST.
FORECASTER PASCH
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