436
WTPZ42 KNHC 222043
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172023
300 PM MDT SUN OCT 22 2023
NORMA CONTINUES TO HAVE PERIODIC BURSTS OF CONVECTION. DESPITE ITS
SHEARED APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE IMAGERY, RECENT SATELLITE WIND DATA
SHOWED THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY.
BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED
TO 55 KT, AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD. LITTLE
CHANGES IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 H OR SO BEFORE
LANDFALL. NORMA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND EARLY TOMORROW, RAPIDLY
WEAKEN, AND DISSIPATE OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN A DAY OR SO.
NORMA HAS TURNED NORTHEASTWARD AT AN ESTIMATED 040/3 KT. A TURN TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS PREDICTED LATER TODAY AS STORM APPROACHES
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, AND THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED
TO THE SOUTH THIS CYCLE. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED
SOUTH AS WELL FOLLOWING THE TREND. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT
LANDFALL LOCATION OF THE CENTER, HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA AND
INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINS FROM NORMA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SINALOA INTO
MONDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG
WITH MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 24.9N 109.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 25.1N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 25.5N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BUCCI
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