118
WTNT41 KNHC 232039
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212023
500 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2023
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THAT THE
NHC HAS BEEN MONITORING FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS DEVELOPED A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. CONVECTION IS WELL-ORGANIZED AND HAS
PERSISTED FOR OVER 12 HOURS, THUS THE DISTURBANCE IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE. SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA FROM A
FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY IS AROUND 25 KT. THIS IS
ALSO CONFIRMED BY THE MOST RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES PROVIDED BY
TAFB AND SAB.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT AN UNCERTAIN 280/4. THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE,
WHICH SHOULD KEEP IT ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
WIND SHEAR VALUES AND WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER,
NO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND SOON. THE DEPRESSION WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY OVER NICARAGUA
AND DISSIPATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINS FROM THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS
OF NICARAGUA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING
INTO HONDURAS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO
PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES IN
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 11.6N 83.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 12.0N 84.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER DELGADO/CANGIALOSI
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