514
WTNT41 KNHC 240233
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212023
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2023
IT HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE TO FIND THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION THIS
EVENING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BLUEFIELDS AIRPORT IN NICARAGUA
INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION LIKELY MOVED NORTHEAST
OF THE OBSERVING STATION EARLIER THIS EVENING, BUT PRESSURES IN THE
AREA WERE NOT PARTICULARLY LOW. SINCE THEN, A ROBUST MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS BEEN VISIBLE IN SHORTWAVE-INFRARED IMAGERY, BUT IT
ISN'T CLEAR IF THIS EXTENDS TO THE SURFACE. ASCAT DATA IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE CLARITY OVER
WHETHER THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS REFORMED UNDER THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION, OR IF HAS ALREADY MOVED INLAND. TAFB AND SAB
DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INTENSITY NEAR 25 KT.
ONCE INLAND, THE DEPRESSION SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE.
HOWEVER, ITS WORTH NOTING THAT IF THE CENTER IS STILL OVER WATER
AND REMAINS THERE FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT, SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE LONG-TERM ESTIMATED MOTION IS
AROUND 310/4 KT, BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE DEPRESSION, OR
ITS REMNANTS, ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT, AND
THEN GENERALLY HEAD WESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN PACIFIC AFTER THAT.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINS FROM THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS
OF NICARAGUA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING
INTO HONDURAS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO
PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES IN
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0300Z 12.4N 83.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 13.1N 84.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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