124
WTNT41 KNHC 240842
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212023
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 24 2023
PROXY-VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NICARAGUA TONIGHT. THIS
WAS CONFIRMED FROM BOTH ASCAT B AND -C SCATTEROMETER PASSES THAT
DEPICTED THERE WAS NO CIRCULATION OFFSHORE. INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
SINCE THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION HAS MOVED INLAND, THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING REMAIN THE PRIMARY IMPACTS
EVEN AS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS AROUND 310/5
KT. THE DEPRESSION AND THEN THE REMNANTS, ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
NORTHWESTWARD, AND THEN GENERALLY HEAD WESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AFTER THAT.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINS FROM THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS
OF NICARAGUA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING
INTO HONDURAS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO
PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES IN
AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 13.1N 84.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 13.2N 84.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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