867
WTPZ43 KNHC 250250
TCDEP3
HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182023
1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 24 2023
A NIGHTMARE SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING FOR SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS EVENING
WITH RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OTIS APPROACHING THE COASTLINE. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT OTIS HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY, WITH DVORAK
DATA-T ESTIMATES BETWEEN 130-145 KT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 140 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE VALUES,
MAKING OTIS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. OTIS HAS EXPLOSIVELY
INTENSIFIED 95 KT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, A MARK ONLY EXCEEDED IN
MODERN TIMES BY PATRICIA IN 2015.
OTIS SHOULD MAINTAIN CATEGORY 5 STATUS BEFORE THE HURRICANE MAKES
LANDFALL NEAR THE ACAPULCO AREA OVERNIGHT OR EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO MENTION TO THE TRACK FORECAST IS
THAT IT HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT DUE TO A RECENT WOBBLE TO THE
EAST AND THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS, AND A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST
MOTION AT ABOUT 8 KT IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH LANDFALL. RAPID
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER LANDFALL, AND OTIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
TOMORROW NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS SITUATION FOR THE ACAPULCO
METROPOLITAN AREA WITH THE CORE OF THE DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE LIKELY
TO COME NEAR OR OVER THAT LARGE CITY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE
NO HURRICANES ON RECORD EVEN CLOSE TO THIS INTENSITY FOR THIS PART
OF MEXICO.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. OTIS IS FORECAST TO BE A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5
HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LIFE-THREATENING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA WITH CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE
EXPECTED.
2. A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
3. HEAVY RAINS FROM OTIS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST
MEXICO THIS WEEK. THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING, ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 16.1N 99.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 17.3N 100.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
24H 26/0000Z 18.0N 100.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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