489
WTPZ34 KNHC 301449
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PILAR ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
1000 AM CDT MON OCT 30 2023
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED WITH PILAR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 91.2W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM W OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENTIRE COAST OF EL SALVADOR
* PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA
* HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO SANDINO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA
AND IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PILAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST. PILAR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H), AND A
CONTINUED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, PILAR COULD BE NEAR THE COAST OF EL
SALVADOR OR NICARAGUA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE
CORE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE STORM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM LAND ON THURSDAY.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND PILAR COULD
BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON TUESDAY. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR PILAR CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ44 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDEP4.SHTML
RAINFALL: PILAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO
10 INCHES, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 15 INCHES, FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM EL SALVADOR SOUTHWARD TO COSTA RICA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ALONG WITH
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY PILAR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING
THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AREA EARLY TUESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.
FORECASTER BLAKE
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