003
WTNT22 KNHC 162047
TCMAT2
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222023
2100 UTC THU NOV 16 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 81.5W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 81.5W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 81.7W
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.7N 80.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.2N 76.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.9N 73.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.3N 69.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 29.4N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 120SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 38.0N 54.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 81.5W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
FORECASTER BERG
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