019
WTPZ45 KNHC 231442
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
800 AM PDT THU NOV 23 2023
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (94E) THAT NHC HAS BEEN MONITORING HAS NOW
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC BASIN.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT AND
CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB WERE T2.5 AND T1.5, RESPECTIVELY. USING A BLEND OF THESE
ESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 2 KT. A
CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN THE
LIGHT STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH TO
ITS NORTHWEST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVING POLEWARD, AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER, BEYOND THAT TIME, AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
DRY AIR SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. SIMULATED SATELLITE FROM THE ECMWF
AND GFS SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION BY 72 HOURS, AND THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DEPICTS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW AT THAT TIME.
MOST MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING AND OPENING INTO A TROUGH BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR
THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 11.9N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 12.3N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 13.2N 122.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 14.0N 122.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 14.9N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 15.6N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 16.2N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1200Z 17.0N 122.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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