901
WTPZ45 KNHC 232034
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
100 PM PST THU NOV 23 2023
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E'S VISIBLE AND INFRARED DEPICTION HAS
DETERIORATED SOME THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SLIGHTLY LESS DEEP
CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DUE
TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR, AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EXPOSED
ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE PLUME. SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE A FAIRLY LARGE RANGE THIS CYCLE, FROM 30 KT UP TO
45 KT. A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS WINDS ON THE
LOWER END, BETWEEN 28-32 KT. GIVEN THIS DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD TOWARDS THE LOW END OF THESE ESTIMATES AT 30 KT THIS
ADVISORY.
THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 3 KT. A
CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN THE
LIGHT STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH TO
ITS NORTHWEST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVING POLEWARD. THE NHC FORECAST WAS NUDGED
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK, AND LIES NEAR THE
CONSENSUS AIDS.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 H REMAINS POSSIBLE AS THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER THIS
TIME, AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION BY 72 HOURS, WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW AT
THAT TIME. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE HARSH ENVIRONMENT AND SMALL SIZE OF
THE SYSTEM, THIS TRANSITION COULD OCCUR SOONER. MOST MODELS SHOW
THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING AND OPENING INTO A TROUGH BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE, NEAR THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 12.0N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 12.5N 122.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 13.4N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 14.4N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 15.1N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 15.6N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 16.1N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1800Z 17.0N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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