871
WTPZ45 KNHC 240231
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
700 PM PST THU NOV 23 2023
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN PRODUCING A LIMITED AMOUNT OF DEEP
CONVECTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO FEEL
THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT, WHICH
LIES NEAR THE LOWER END OF THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES.
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND SINCE IT FORMED, BUT THE
AVERAGE MOTION DURING THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 8 KT. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES IN WEAK STEERING
FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. BEYOND THAT TIME, THE WEAK AND SHALLOW
SYSTEM SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT, TRENDING
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE RAGGED APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM, LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION, AND
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR SUGGESTS THAT LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE MODELS SHOW
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BRIEFLY INCREASING OVER THE SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS A LITTLE STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER, STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EVEN DRIER AIR SHOULD END THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR STRENGTHENING ON SUNDAY, AND LEAD TO THE SYSTEM BECOMING A
REMNANT LOW. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW DISSIPATING
ENTIRELY IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0300Z 12.6N 122.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 13.2N 122.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 14.1N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 14.9N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 15.5N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 15.9N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 16.4N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0000Z 18.0N 124.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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