667
WTPZ45 KNHC 240837
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
100 AM PST FRI NOV 24 2023
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION, AND THE HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS HAS EXPANDED
WESTWARD, MOSTLY OBSCURING THE DEPRESSION'S CENTER. WITH FINAL-T
NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 30 KT.
THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD, SKIRTING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 315/7 KT. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, CAUSING THE CYCLONE
TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE NEW
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST TVCE CONSENSUS, REQUIRING ANOTHER SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT TO
THE LEFT.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DIGGING NEAR THE DEPRESSION, THE 20
KT OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CURRENT AFFECTING THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST INCREASE TO ABOUT 50 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT 48
HOURS. AS A RESULT, LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THAT DOESN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD
AS A TROPICAL STORM IF THE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. THE INCREASING SHEAR IS LIKELY, HOWEVER, TO ULTIMATELY
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 60 HOURS AND
DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 13.0N 122.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 13.7N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 15.3N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 15.7N 123.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 16.1N 123.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0600Z 16.7N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
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