853
WTPZ45 KNHC 241436
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
700 AM PST FRI NOV 24 2023
DEPRESSION TWENTY-E CONTINUES TO HAVE A PULSING CONVECTIVE PATTERN.
AFTER A ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING, CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN
WARMING FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FOR THIS CYCLE WERE 30 TO 35 KT. THERE WAS A PARTIAL AMSR MICROWAVE
PASS THIS MORNING, BUT IT MISSED THE CONVECTIVE SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
THERE HAVE BEEN NO OTHER MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER PASSES TO AID IN
DETERMINING THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL ORGANIZATION OR INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM. GIVEN THE WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT NEAR THE LOWER END OF THE ESTIMATED
INTENSITY RANGE.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AT AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 325/5KT. A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION,
CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, NEAR THE
SIMPLE CONSENSUS AIDS.
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
BECOME STRONG (30-40 KT) IN ABOUT 24H, AND INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KT BY
SUNDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD, IT WILL ENCOUNTER A DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIRMASS AS WELL. AS A RESULT, LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY
IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY THE SYSTEM COULD BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH
THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY, AND
DISSIPATING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 13.4N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 14.1N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 14.9N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 15.5N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 15.9N 123.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 16.3N 123.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1200Z 16.9N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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