404
WTPZ45 KNHC 250241
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM RAMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
700 PM PST FRI NOV 24 2023
SINCE THE PRIOR ADVISORY, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME MARKEDLY
BETTER ORGANIZED. A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS FORMED NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER, WITH SOME MODEST EVIDENCE OF BANDING ALONG ITS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FORM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 30-35 KT, WITH
OTHER OBJECTIVE INTENSITY MEASURES RANGING FROM 33 KT FROM ADT, UP
TO 39 KT FROM SATCON. SINCE THE SYSTEM DOES LOOK BETTER ORGANIZED
THAN EARLIER TODAY, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KT,
UPGRADING TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E TO TROPICAL STORM RAMON.
THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR THE STORM TO INTENSIFY A BIT MORE
OVERNIGHT, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING ALONG A SUBTROPICAL JET
NORTH OF RAMON RESULTING IN A SHORT-TERM BOOST IN UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVER THE CYCLONE. THE DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH
THE NIGHTTIME DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM, WHICH HAS BEEN QUITE
PROMINENT THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH THIS CYCLONE. HOWEVER, THE SAME
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO PROGRESSIVE, AND WILL SOON LEAD TO
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER OF RAMON, RESULTING IN
A SHARP INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THUS, AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT, WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TOMORROW, WITH THE SYSTEM STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW ON SUNDAY WITH DISSIPATION SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT CLOSER TO THE THE HCCA CONSENSUS AID,
WHICH FAVORS THE HURRICANE-REGIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS MORE THAN THE
LOWER SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.
THE CENTER OF RAMON MAY HAVE REFORMED CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION
EARLIER TODAY, AND ITS MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN NORTH DRIFT AT
360/4 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF RAMON SHOULD
LEAD TO THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN THE SHORT TERM.
HOWEVER, AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS THE VERY HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, IT SHOULD BECOME VERTICALLY SHALLOW, LEAVING THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO BE STEERED SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST
SHOWS A BIT MORE OF A NORTHWARD MOTION EARLY ON, BUT FALLS BACK
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK, JUST A BIT EAST OF THE SIMPLE AND
CORRECTED TRACK AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 13.8N 122.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 14.5N 122.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 14.9N 122.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 15.0N 122.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 15.1N 123.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1200Z 15.5N 123.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
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