530
WTPZ45 KNHC 251436
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM RAMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
700 AM PST SAT NOV 25 2023
RAMON'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DIMINISHED SINCE EARLIER THIS
MORNING, ALTHOUGH THERE IS NEW CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE CENTER.
THE SYSTEM IS DEALING WITH STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR WHICH IS
DISPLACING ANY NEW CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE THIS CYCLE
WITH DVORAK FINAL-T VALUES OF T2.0/T2.5, OR 30 TO 35 KT. THE
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT FOR THIS CYCLE, WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE
GENEROUS GIVEN THE TRENDS IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. ASCAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD GIVE A
BETTER IDEA OF RAMON'S INTENSITY.
THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR 350/3 KT.
RAMON IS WITHIN A WEAK STEERING PATTERN BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH, WHICH WILL CAUSE A
SLOW NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
BY SUNDAY, A WEAKER AND SHALLOW RAMON IS FORECAST TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK, CLOSEST TO THE SIMPLE
CONSENSUS AIDS.
RAMON IS WITHIN A STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT,
AND THE SHEAR MAGNITUDE FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE POLEWARD. DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE THE SYSTEM MAY
BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS TROPICAL STORM STATUS THROUGH TODAY.
HOWEVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE CONVERGENT
TONIGHT. THE HARSH WIND SHEAR AND MORE CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO QUICK WEAKENING, WITH RAMON EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS, IF NOT SOONER. GLOBAL MODELS THEN
SHOW THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATING BY 60 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 15.1N 123.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 15.4N 123.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 15.7N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 15.8N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1200Z 16.2N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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