359
WTPZ45 KNHC 260835
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM RAMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
100 AM PST SUN NOV 26 2023
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RAMON BECAME WELL SEPARATED FROM
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AROUND THE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE
TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. SINCE THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE HAS
BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
DECREASED, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO A POSSIBLY
GENEROUS 35 KT. THAT IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBER OF 2.5 FROM TAFB. THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER RAMON IS ALREADY ABOVE 50 KT AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS
MODEL, AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY STRONG DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH AN INCREASINGLY DRY MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE RAMON TO QUICKLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE GFS MODEL DOES
NOT SHOW ANY DEEP CONVECTION RETURNING, AND BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR RAMON TO DEGENERATE INTO
A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY, AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
RAMON HAS TAKEN A SOUTHWESTWARD JOG OVERNIGHT, BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN
A MORE WESTWARD MOTION THIS MORNING AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD THEN CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO
UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MORE
SOUTHERN INITIAL POSITION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 14.4N 123.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 14.3N 123.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/0600Z 14.4N 124.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/1800Z 14.7N 125.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BROWN
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