526
AXPZ20 KNHC 251604
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU APR 25 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
AN EQUATORIAL TROUGH RUNS WESTWARD FROM THE COASTAL BORDER OF
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA TO 09N96W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N96W
ACROSS 07N120W TO BEYOND 05N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR THE TROUGH FROM 01N TO 08N
BETWEEN THE PANAMA-COLOMBIA COAST AND 90W, AND NEAR THE ITCZ
FROM 04N TO 07N WEST OF 134W, INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
COSTA RICA, PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN
107W AND 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 25N122W,
WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS NEAR THE COAST OF SONORA STATE,
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WITH 5
TO 7 FT SEAS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS, AND MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY WINDS WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS
AT THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO FRESH
GAP WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE PRESENT AT THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. MAINLY GENTLE N TO ENE WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO 5 FT
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, SW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, LOCALLY NEAR-GALE
FORCE, WILL PULSE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
MORNING, AND AGAIN FRI EVENING THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.
STARTING TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC IS GOING
TO STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL CAUSE GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS
TO BECOME FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY
FRI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL WEAKEN BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN FAIRLY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND
EL SALVADOR. REFER TO THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF
5 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH N
WINDS WITH 4 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT AT THE GULF OF PANAMA.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT IN
MODERATE LONG- PERIOD S SWELL EXIST OFF ECUADOR AND NEAR THE
GALAPAGOS ISLAND. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE
FOUND IN THE REST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS NEAR THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WILL PULSE THROUGH FRI MORNING, THEN MODERATE TO FRESH
THROUGH SAT MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM 30N121W TO
26N130W. OTHERWISE, BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF THE
ITCZ. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND 6 TO 9 FT SEAS ARE FROM 07N
TO 23N AND W OF 110W, LOCALLY STRONG FROM 08N TO 22N AND W OF
128W. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS, ALONG WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT, PRIMARILY
IN SW SWELL S OF 10N AND PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL N OF 10N.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
OCCASIONALLY PULSE TO STRONG, ALONG WITH CONTINUING 6 TO 9 FT
SEAS UNDER THE RIDGE. MEANWHILE, THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
WATERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE SHIFTING E. MODERATE
TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND SEAS AT 7 TO 10 FT ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF 20N AND E OF 125W BY FRI. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHAN
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