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FXHW40 KWBC 161332
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EDT THU DEC 16 2004
MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JAN 2005
SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ONE HALF DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL
AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE
MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER. FOR 2004 THROUGH
THE END OF NOVEMBER - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
AT LIHUE AIRPORT 39.06 INCHES (112 PERCENT OF NORMAL) -
HONOLULU AIRPORT 33.06 INCHES (213 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND
HILO AIRPORT 126.53 INCHES (109 PERCENT OF NORMAL).
CCA - OCN - SMT TOOLS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL
MODELS INDICATE WARM THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL
STATIONS IN JANUARY 2005. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS FOR
SIGNIFICANT JANUARY PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES FROM ANY TOOL.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A40 71.6 0.5 EC 4.3 6.8 9.6
KAHULUI A40 72.1 0.6 EC 0.8 1.4 2.0
HONOLULU A40 73.1 0.5 EC 0.8 1.3 2.3
LIHUE A40 71.9 0.6 EC 1.2 1.7 3.2
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JAN-FEB-MAR 2005 TO JAN-FEB-MAR 2006
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
SST AND DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. POSITIVE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +0.5C PERSISTED
ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. POSITIVE
EQUATORIAL SST ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +1C WERE FOUND FROM 160E
EASTWARD TO 155W AND LOCALLY IN AREAS BETWEEN 155W AND THE SOUTH
AMERICAN COAST. BASED ON THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF OCEANIC AND
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND ON A MAJORITY OF THE STATISTICAL AND
COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS - IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT SST ANOMALIES
IN THE NINO 3.4 REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIVE - AT OR ABOVE +0.5C,
THROUGH EARLY 2005.
CCA - OCN AND SMT INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FROM JFM 2005
TO FMA 2005. CCA - OCN AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE AN ENHANCED
PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR JFM 2005 TO FMA 2005.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLLOK ALSO REFLECTS WEAK EL NINO COMPOSITES.
. . . . . . . .
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2005 A40 71.8 0.4 B40 23.9 30.9 39.4
FMA 2005 A40 72.1 0.4 B40 29.5 35.9 43.1
MAM 2005 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6
AMJ 2005 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2
MJJ 2005 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8
JJA 2005 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6
JAS 2005 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7
ASO 2005 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0
SON 2005 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4
OND 2005 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3
NDJ 2005 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7
DJF 2006 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9
JFM 2006 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2005 A40 72.4 0.5 B40 6.0 8.1 10.6
FMA 2005 A40 73.2 0.5 B40 4.3 6.0 8.1
MAM 2005 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8
AMJ 2005 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1
MJJ 2005 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JJA 2005 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3
JAS 2005 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5
ASO 2005 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5
SON 2005 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3
OND 2005 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6
NDJ 2005 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2006 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7
JFM 2006 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2005 A40 73.5 0.4 B40 4.1 5.8 8.0
FMA 2005 A40 74.5 0.4 B40 3.4 4.6 6.1
MAM 2005 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3
AMJ 2005 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6
MJJ 2005 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0
JJA 2005 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6
JAS 2005 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0
ASO 2005 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8
SON 2005 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9
OND 2005 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4
NDJ 2005 EC 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7
DJF 2006 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1
JFM 2006 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2005 A40 72.4 0.4 B40 8.0 10.8 14.1
FMA 2005 A40 73.1 0.4 B40 7.5 9.6 12.0
MAM 2005 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4
AMJ 2005 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0
MJJ 2005 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0
JJA 2005 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6
JAS 2005 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4
ASO 2005 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0
SON 2005 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9
OND 2005 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2
NDJ 2005 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8
DJF 2006 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7
JFM 2006 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE
NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH
AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES
AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES
FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML
NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES)
AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL
INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE
SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS
THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW
NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% HIGHER THAN
NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE
CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE
OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% HIGHER
THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST
LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON THURSDAY JAN 20 2005.
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