044
FXHW40 KWBC 201341
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830AM EST THU DEC 20 2007
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FOR JANUARY 2008
SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO DEGREE C.
FOR JANUARY 2007 THROUGH THE END OF NOVEMBER - RAINFALL TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
- LIHUE AIRPORT 16.22 INCHES (46 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 8.89 INCHES (57 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 6.25 INCHES (39 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 89.19 INCHES (77 PERCENT OF NORMAL).
NCEP CFS PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR LIHUE AND HONOLULU FOR JANUARY
2008. NCEP CFS CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR JANUARY 2008.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO EC 71.6 0.5 A40 3.5 7.5 11.0
KAHULUI EC 71.9 0.6 A40 1.3 2.2 2.9
HONOLULU A40 72.9 0.6 A40 0.7 1.4 3.5
LIHUE A40 71.7 0.6 A40 1.4 3.1 4.8
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION VALID FOR JFM 2008 TO JFM 2009
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND
DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. MODERATE LA NIA CONDITIONS
ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. EQUATORIAL SSTS REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
FROM 160E EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. THE UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC REMAINED BELOW AVERAGE.
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHENED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - CONVECTION REMAINED SUPPRESSED THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
COVERED THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC. THE RECENT SST FORECASTS FOR THE NIO 3.4
REGION INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF LA NIA INTO NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING
2008. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON RESULTS FROM
HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF COLD EPISODES - WETTER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.- AFFILATED ISLANDS DURING THE
WINTER.
NCEP CFS PREDICTS A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HILO AND KAHULUI
FROM FMA TO AMJ 2008 - ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HONOLULU AND LIHUE FROM
JFM 2008 TO AMJ 2008. NCEP CFS PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII
FROM JFM TO MAM 2008.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2008 EC 71.8 0.4 A40 23.9 30.9 39.4
FMA 2008 A40 72.1 0.4 A40 29.5 35.9 43.1
MAM 2008 A40 72.8 0.5 A40 28.3 34.9 42.6
AMJ 2008 A40 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2
MJJ 2008 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8
JJA 2008 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6
JAS 2008 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7
ASO 2008 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0
SON 2008 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4
OND 2008 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3
NDJ 2008 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7
DJF 2008 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9
JFM 2009 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2008 EC 72.4 0.5 A40 6.0 8.1 10.6
FMA 2008 A40 73.2 0.5 A40 4.3 6.0 8.1
MAM 2008 A40 74.4 0.6 A40 2.9 4.2 5.8
AMJ 2008 A40 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1
MJJ 2008 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JJA 2008 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3
JAS 2008 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5
ASO 2008 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5
SON 2008 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3
OND 2008 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6
NDJ 2008 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2008 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7
JFM 2009 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2008 A40 73.5 0.4 A40 4.1 5.8 8.0
FMA 2008 A40 74.5 0.4 A40 3.4 4.6 6.1
MAM 2008 A40 76.0 0.4 A40 2.4 3.2 4.3
AMJ 2008 A40 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6
MJJ 2008 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0
JJA 2008 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6
JAS 2008 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0
ASO 2008 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8
SON 2008 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9
OND 2008 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4
NDJ 2008 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2008 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1
JFM 2009 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2008 A40 72.4 0.4 A40 8.0 10.8 14.1
FMA 2008 A40 73.1 0.4 A40 7.5 9.6 12.0
MAM 2008 A40 74.4 0.4 A40 7.3 9.2 11.4
AMJ 2008 A40 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0
MJJ 2008 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0
JJA 2008 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6
JAS 2008 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4
ASO 2008 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0
SON 2008 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9
OND 2008 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2
NDJ 2008 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8
DJF 2008 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7
JFM 2009 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE
TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW
NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER
EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL
PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML
NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT
THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY
ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK.
FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS
SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU JAN 17, 2008
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