879
FXHW40 KWBC 211337
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EST THU FEB 21 2008
MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MARCH 2008
SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND POSITIVE 0.5 TO NEGATIVE 0.5
DEGREE C FROM NORTHWESTERN TO SOUTHESATERN ISLANDS.
FOR JANUARY 2008 - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
- LIHUE AIRPORT 1.19 INCHES (26 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 0.21 INCHES (8 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 1.42 INCHES (38 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 14.20 INCHES (146 PERCENT OF NORMAL).
NCEP MODELS PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR LIHUE AND HONOLULU AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR KAHULUI AND HILO FOR MARCH 2008. NCEP MODELS ALSO CALL
FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR MARCH 2008.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO B40 72.1 0.6 A40 5.7 12.1 15.4
KAHULUI B40 73.2 0.6 A40 1.4 2.0 2.9
HONOLULU A40 74.5 0.5 A40 0.7 1.2 2.5
LIHUE A40 72.9 0.5 A40 1.5 2.5 3.3
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAM 2008 - MAM 2009
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND
DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. MODERATE TO STRONG LA NINA
CONDITIONS ARE NOW PRESENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SSTS
IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FROM WEST OF THE DATE LINE EASTWARD
TO 100W. THE UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALSO FURTHER DECREASED DURING JANUARY.
STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
PERSISTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - CONVECTION REMAINED
SUPPRESSED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - AND ENHANCED CONVECTION
COVERED THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC. THE RECENT DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL SST
FORECASTS FOR THE NINA 3.4 REGION INDICATE A MODERATE-TO-STRONG LA NINA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER - WITH THE LIKELY CONTINUATION OF A
WEAKER LA NINA THROUGH APRIL-MAY-JUNE.
NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR LIHUE FROM MAM
TO AMJ 2008 - BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HILO FROM MAM TO JJA 2008 - KAHULUI
FROM MJJ TO JJA 2008 - HONOLULU FOR JJA 2008. MODELS ALSO PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR MAM 2008 AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM JJA
TO JAS 2008.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2008 B40 72.8 0.5 A40 28.3 34.9 42.6
AMJ 2008 B40 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2
MJJ 2008 B40 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8
JJA 2008 B40 75.9 0.4 B40 19.5 24.2 29.6
JAS 2008 EC 76.3 0.4 B40 22.2 27.1 32.7
ASO 2008 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0
SON 2008 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4
OND 2008 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3
NDJ 2008 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7
DJF 2009 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9
JFM 2009 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4
FMA 2009 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1
MAM 2009 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2008 EC 74.4 0.6 A40 2.9 4.2 5.8
AMJ 2008 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1
MJJ 2008 B40 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JJA 2008 B40 78.6 0.5 B40 0.8 1.1 1.3
JAS 2008 EC 79.1 0.5 B40 0.9 1.2 1.5
ASO 2008 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5
SON 2008 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3
OND 2008 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6
NDJ 2008 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2009 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7
JFM 2009 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6
FMA 2009 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1
MAM 2009 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2008 EC 76.0 0.4 A40 2.4 3.2 4.3
AMJ 2008 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6
MJJ 2008 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0
JJA 2008 B40 80.7 0.4 B40 0.8 1.2 1.6
JAS 2008 EC 81.2 0.4 B40 1.1 1.5 2.0
ASO 2008 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8
SON 2008 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9
OND 2008 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4
NDJ 2008 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2009 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1
JFM 2009 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0
FMA 2009 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1
MAM 2009 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2008 A40 74.4 0.4 A40 7.3 9.2 11.4
AMJ 2008 A40 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0
MJJ 2008 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0
JJA 2008 EC 78.8 0.3 B40 4.6 5.6 6.6
JAS 2008 EC 79.3 0.3 B40 5.1 6.2 7.4
ASO 2008 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0
SON 2008 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9
OND 2008 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2
NDJ 2008 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8
DJF 2009 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7
JFM 2009 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1
FMA 2009 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0
MAM 2009 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4
FORECASTER: LUKE.HE
NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE
NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH
AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES
AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES
FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML
NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES)
AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL
INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE
SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS
THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR
BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A
37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE
CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS.
WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOSTLIKELY CATEGORY
CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON THU MAR 20 2008
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