871
FXHW40 KWBC 201331
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2008
MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR APRIL 2008
SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII NOW RANGE FROM AROUND POSITIVE 0.5 DEGREE C NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS TO AROUND NEGATIVE 0.5 DEGREE C NEAR THE SOUTHESATERN
ISLANDS.
FOR JANUARY 2008 THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
WERE:
- LIHUE AIRPORT 2.53 INCHES (32 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 0.63 INCHES (12 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 2.45 INCHES (40 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 53.28 INCHES (286 PERCENT OF NORMAL).
NCEP MODELS PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR LIHUE AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE FOR KAHULUI AND HILO FOR APRIL 2008. NCEP TOOLS GIVE NO
INDICATION IN FAVOR OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR APRIL
2008.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO B40 72.6 0.5 EC 7.6 10.3 11.0
KAHULUI B40 74.3 0.6 EC 0.5 1.0 1.3
HONOLULU EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.5 0.7 1.0
LIHUE A40 74.1 0.5 EC 1.6 2.7 3.3
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR AMJ 2008 - AMJ 2009
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND
DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. A MATURE LA NINA CONTINUES
ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SSTS IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE FROM WEST OF THE DATE LINE EASTWARD TO 110W. THE UPPER-OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT REMAINED BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. STRONGER-
THAN-AVERAGE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS PERSISTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - CONVECTION REMAINED SUPPRESSED
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - AND ENHANCED CONVECTION COVERED THE
FAR WESTERN PACIFIC. RECENT EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS
INDICATE LA NINA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING 2008.
NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR LIHUE FROM AMJ
TO MJJ 2008 - BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HILO FROM AMJ TO ASO 2008 - KAHULUI
FROM JJA TO ASO 2008 AND FOR HONOLULU FROM JAS TO ASO 2008. MODELS ALSO PREDICT
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FROM JJA TO ASO 2008.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2008 B40 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2
MJJ 2008 B40 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8
JJA 2008 B40 75.9 0.4 B40 19.5 24.2 29.6
JAS 2008 B40 76.3 0.4 B40 22.2 27.1 32.7
ASO 2008 B40 76.2 0.4 B40 23.4 27.0 31.0
SON 2008 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4
OND 2008 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3
NDJ 2008 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7
DJF 2009 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9
JFM 2009 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4
FMA 2009 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1
MAM 2009 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6
AMJ 2009 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2008 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1
MJJ 2008 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JJA 2008 B40 78.6 0.5 B40 0.8 1.1 1.3
JAS 2008 B40 79.1 0.5 B40 0.9 1.2 1.5
ASO 2008 B40 78.9 0.5 B40 1.3 1.8 2.5
SON 2008 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3
OND 2008 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6
NDJ 2008 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2009 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7
JFM 2009 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6
FMA 2009 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1
MAM 2009 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8
AMJ 2009 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2008 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6
MJJ 2008 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0
JJA 2008 EC 80.7 0.4 B40 0.8 1.2 1.6
JAS 2008 B40 81.2 0.4 B40 1.1 1.5 2.0
ASO 2008 B40 81.0 0.5 B40 1.7 2.6 3.8
SON 2008 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9
OND 2008 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4
NDJ 2008 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2009 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1
JFM 2009 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0
FMA 2009 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1
MAM 2009 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3
AMJ 2009 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2008 A40 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0
MJJ 2008 A40 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0
JJA 2008 EC 78.8 0.3 B40 4.6 5.6 6.6
JAS 2008 EC 79.3 0.3 B40 5.1 6.2 7.4
ASO 2008 EC 79.0 0.3 B40 6.3 8.0 10.0
SON 2008 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9
OND 2008 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2
NDJ 2008 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8
DJF 2009 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7
JFM 2009 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1
FMA 2009 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0
MAM 2009 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4
AMJ 2009 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE
NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH
AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES
AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES
FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML
NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES)
AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL
INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE
SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS
THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR
BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A
37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE
CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS.
WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOSTLIKELY CATEGORY
CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON THU APR 17 2008
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