642
FXUS02 KWBC 261750
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
150 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2008
VALID 12Z THU MAY 29 2008 - 12Z MON JUN 02 2008
PRELIMINARY...
WILL KEEP IT SHORT AND SWEET SINCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE SOFTLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION...WITH NO
INDICATION OF ANY INTENSE CYCLONES FOR THE NEAR FUTURE. THE 00Z
GFS WAS AN OUTLIER AMONG THE ECMWF AND THE EC AND GEM ENSEMBLE
MEANS BY DAY 7 OVER THE EASTERN STATES...LIFTING THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH OUT OF THE REGION. WENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FOR
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 FOR THE UPDATE PACKAGE...WITH A BLEND TOWARD THE
EC MEAN FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 TO ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTY INHERENT AT
THAT TIME RANGE.
FINAL...
THE 12Z GFS HAS COME AROUND TO THE MORE AMPLIFIED MODELS FROM THE
00Z CYCLE WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST DAY 7...AS GOOD A VOTE OF
CONFIDENCE AS ANY TO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FRONTS AND
PRESSURES FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE WAVE THAT CROSSES
THE MIDWEST DAYS 4 AND 5...THE SAME SYSTEM THAT WILL SPELL AN END
TO THE RECENT UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER THE WEST ONCE IT DEPARTS THE
REGION DAY 3.
...PLEASE REFER TO THE HPC HOMEPAGE FOR THE ALASKA REGION MEDIUM
RANGE FORECAST...
CISCO
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