768
FXHW40 KWBC 311905
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2007
MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOVEMBER 2007
SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW AROUND ZERO DEGREE C.
FOR JANUARY 2007 THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER - RAINFALL TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
-LIHUE AIRPORT 12.48 INCHES (48 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
-HONOLULU AIRPORT 3.28 INCHES (30 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
-KAHULUI AIRPORT 4.18 INCHES (33 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
-HILO AIRPORT 70.57 INCHES (78 PERCENT OF NORMAL).
NCEP CFS PREDICTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HILO FOR NOVEMBER 2007.
ALL TOOLS GIVE NO INDICATION OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FOR NOVEMBER 2007.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO B40 74.2 0.4 EC 8.8 12.9 15.8
KAHULUI EC 76.1 0.6 EC 1.0 2.0 2.2
HONOLULU EC 77.4 0.7 EC 0.6 1.0 1.5
LIHUE EC 75.8 0.5 EC 2.3 2.9 3.8
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NDJ 2007 - NDJ 2008
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND
DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. LA NIA CONDITIONS
STRENGTHENED ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. NEGATIVE SST ANOMALIES ALONG THE
EQUATOR EXPANDED WESTWARD AND NOW EXTEND FROM 170E TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN
COAST. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE NEGATIVE SST ANOMALIES INCREASED IN ALL OF THE NIO
REGIONS. THE UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC REMAINED BELOW AVERAGE. THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AND
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS REMAINED STRONGER THAN AVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. CONVECTION REMAINED SUPPRESSED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC - AND ENHANCED CONVECTION AGAIN COVERED PARTS OF
INDONESIA AND THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC. THE RECENT SST FORECASTS FOR THE NIO
3.4 REGION INDICATE A WEAK-TO-MODERATE LA NIA CONTINUING INTO EARLY 2008.
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND ON RESULTS FROM
HISTORICAL STUDIES ON THE EFFECTS OF COLD EPISODES - WETTER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER HAWAII AND SOME U.S.-AFFILATED ISLANDS DURING THE
WINTER.
NCEP CFS PREDICTS A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HILO FOR JFM TO
AMJ 2008 - ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR KAHULUI FROM NDJ 2007 TO AMJ 2008 -
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HONOLULU AND LIHUE FROM NDJ 2007 TO AMJ 2008. NCEP
CFS PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FROM DJF TO MAM 2008.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2007 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7
DJF 2008 EC 72.0 0.4 A40 20.1 27.2 35.9
JFM 2008 A40 71.8 0.4 A40 23.9 30.9 39.4
FMA 2008 A40 72.1 0.4 A40 29.5 35.9 43.1
MAM 2008 A40 72.8 0.5 A40 28.3 34.9 42.6
AMJ 2008 A40 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2
MJJ 2008 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8
JJA 2008 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6
JAS 2008 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7
ASO 2008 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0
SON 2008 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4
OND 2008 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3
NDJ 2008 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2007 A40 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2008 A40 72.5 0.5 A40 6.8 9.0 11.7
JFM 2008 A40 72.4 0.5 A40 6.0 8.1 10.6
FMA 2008 A40 73.2 0.5 A40 4.3 6.0 8.1
MAM 2008 A40 74.4 0.6 A40 2.9 4.2 5.8
AMJ 2008 A40 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1
MJJ 2008 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JJA 2008 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3
JAS 2008 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5
ASO 2008 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5
SON 2008 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3
OND 2008 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6
NDJ 2008 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2007 A40 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2008 A40 73.5 0.4 A40 5.0 6.9 9.1
JFM 2008 A40 73.5 0.4 A40 4.1 5.8 8.0
FMA 2008 A40 74.5 0.4 A40 3.4 4.6 6.1
MAM 2008 A40 76.0 0.4 A40 2.4 3.2 4.3
AMJ 2008 A40 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6
MJJ 2008 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0
JJA 2008 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6
JAS 2008 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0
ASO 2008 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8
SON 2008 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9
OND 2008 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4
NDJ 2008 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2007 A40 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8
DJF 2008 A40 72.4 0.4 A40 8.6 11.4 14.7
JFM 2008 A40 72.4 0.4 A40 8.0 10.8 14.1
FMA 2008 A40 73.1 0.4 A40 7.5 9.6 12.0
MAM 2008 A40 74.4 0.4 A40 7.3 9.2 11.4
AMJ 2008 A40 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0
MJJ 2008 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0
JJA 2008 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6
JAS 2008 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4
ASO 2008 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0
SON 2008 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9
OND 2008 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2
NDJ 2008 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE
NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH
AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES
AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES
FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML
NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES)
AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL
INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE
SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS
THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR
BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A
37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE
CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS.
WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOSTLIKELY CATEGORY
CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON THU NOV 15 2007
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