029
FXUS02 KWBC 042036
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
435 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2008
VALID 12Z SAT JUN 07 2008 - 12Z WED JUN 11 2008
THE NEW 12Z GFS FOLLOWS ITS OWN 00Z CONTINUITY FAIRLY WELL THRU
DAY 4...BUT IS STILL NOT OUR PREFERRED MODEL OF CHOICE. BY DAY
5...IT IS A BIT CLOSER TO THE PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER 00Z ECMWF WITH
ITS CONFIGURATION OF THE WRN TROF. THE BEST CONTINUITY SEEMS TO BE
HAD BY THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH AVOIDS BIZARRE CONTINUITY
CHANGES FROM ITS 00Z RUN SUCH AS THOSE OF THE DAY 6 12Z ECMWF. THE
12Z/04 UKMET GIVES GOOD SUPPORT TO THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
12Z CANADIAN SEEM TO DROP THE UPPER TROF TOO FAR TO THE WEST BY
DAY 5. BOTTOM LINE IS HOLDING FIRM TO REASONABLE CONTINUITY UNTIL
THE PATTERN ALONG THE W COAST OF NOAM DECIDES WHAT IT WANTS TO DO.
HPC CONTINUES TO LEAN HEAVILY TOWARDS THE FAMILY OF SOLUTIONS
DEPICTED BY THE BULK OF THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...KEEPING A BROAD DEEP TROF OVER THE NWRN STATES AND A
FLAT BUT STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS AND SE CANADA.
FINAL MANUAL PROGS PROGS MADE NO CHANGE FROM THE 50-50
CANADIAN/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND SENT OUT EARLIER OVER THE CONUS.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE OVER THE OCEANS TOWARDS THE NEW 12Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN.
..REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
..SERN HALF OF THE CONUS
WITH UPPER RIDGING SOUNDING A DOMINANT NOTE OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE CONUS...MOST PLACES ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT SEPARATING
COOL AIR OVER THE NWRN STATES FROM VERY WARM MUGGY CONDITIONS
FARTHER S ARE GOING TO EXPERIENCE AN EARLY JUNE HEAT WAVE. MANY
TEMP ANOMALIES MAY EXCEED 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IT WILL FEEL
LIKE EARLY AUGUST WITH HAZY HOT HUMID CONDITIONS AND WIDELY SCTD
DIURNAL TSRA EXCEPT FOR LOW PREDICTABILITY MESOSCALE FEATURES AND
THE USUAL ACTIVITY ALONG COASTAL AREAS/TERRAIN FEATURES.
..CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS
...MCS CLUSTERS WILL FREQUENT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE SE SIDE
OF THE WRN TROF WITH THE REGION FROM CENTRAL/ERN KS EWD THRU ERN
PORTIONS OF NE/ND/SD...AND MOST OF MN/THE WRN LAKES SEEING THE
LIONS SHARE OF HEAVY ACTIVITY. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL FEED MOISTURE
FOR SOME LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SOME STORMS MAY SPREAD AS FAR
E AS NEW ENG BEFORE DYING OUT INTO THE MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE
POSITION.
.NW CONUS
COOL WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE UNDER THE UPPER TROF. OUR
CHOICE OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DOWNPLAYS THE EXTREME PCPN
FORECAST OF THE 12Z GFS IN MT MON/TUE DAYS 5-6. SOME OF THE VERY
HIGHEST LELVATIONS MAY EVEN SEE SOME SNOWFALL.
FLOOD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page