966
FXUS02 KWBC 131759
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
158 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008
VALID 12Z MON JUN 16 2008 - 12Z FRI JUN 20 2008
DEVELOPING NEGATIVE ANOMALIES NEAR 48N 140W AND NEW JERSEY
COMPLIMENT EACH OTHER...AND AGREE WITH THE IDEA OF HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING RIDGES ACROSS NORTHWEST CANADA AND THE LOWER DAVIS
STRAIT. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THESE IDEAS AND
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. SINCE THE NCEP/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS
ARE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF ENS MEAN FOLLOWING ECMWF.
MAIN DIFFERENCE HERE IS WITH A SHORTWVE DRIVING EWD ALONG THE 49TH
PARALLEL TUES -THURS KNOCKING DOWN THE STRONGER RIDGING OF CMC/GFS
AND UKMET...USED ECMWF DAYS 3 AND 4 BLENDING IN CONSENSUS TREND OF
A HIGHER AMPLITUDE GFS/CMC/UKMET/GFS ENS MEAN.
DERIVED BLEND FOR DAYS 5-7 IS 60/40 ECMWF/GFS ENS MEAN.
LATEST 12Z GFS REMAINS SIMILAR TO ITS PRIOR RUN. AGREED UPON
PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS ONSHORE PAC FLOW INTO THE WEST COAST WITH
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS RIDGING AND AN ERN COUNS TROF REMAINS
CONSISTENT. CURRENT ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY/SERN MANITOBA WILL CONT TO MOVE EWD TO ALONG THE
NERN U.C./CANADIAN BORDER BRING BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL HTS
ACROSS ERN CONUS TUES ONWARD. LATEST GFS APPEAR OVERDONE WITH H500
HTS AT 3 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL OVER MID ATLC REGION
WED/THU WITH MODS GUIDANCE TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TUES /FRI IN NW FLOW DOWN FROM THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CREST INTO THE
ERN CONUS TROF BASE.
ROTH/ROSENSTEIN
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