427
FXUS02 KWBC 181752
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
152 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2008
VALID 12Z SAT JUN 21 2008 - 12Z WED JUN 25 2008
PERSISTENT PATTERN OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONT TO BE LOCKED
IN WITH A MEAN SWRN CANADIAN/PAC NW TROF..NRN PLAINS RIDGING AND A
FIXED MEAN TROF OVER ERN CONUS AND ADJACENT ATKL SEABOARD.
DIFFERENCES OCCUR IN THE NERN PAC/GLFAK AND OVER AK AS A REX BLOCK
SETS UP WITH UNDERCUTTING FLOW INTO THE PAC NW AND CA COAST. AGAIN
TDA REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT THRU DAY 5 MON. WHILE OP MODELS
DIFER IN DETAILS DAYS 6 AND 7 OVER THE NERN PAC AND NERN CONUS THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS OF GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR AND PROVIDE A
DECENT TEMPLATE FOR SFC PROGS. I.E. MAINTAINING A MEAN TROF ALONG
THE PAC NW COAST/ MODERATE RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND A
RESIDUAL TROF ALONG THE NE AND MID ATLC COAST. SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND WINDS ARE QUITE LT THIS PERIOD WITH DIFFICULITIES IN
FRONTAL PLACEMENT.
12Z GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT THRU DAY 5 AND BY DAYS 6 AND 7 IS
TRENDING TOWARDS FLATTER NRN PLAINS FLOW CLOSER TO ECMWF AND THE
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
THE PLAINS WILL BE SUBJECT TO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES THIS PERIOD AS
ENERGY COMES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND DIVES SEWD. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS TARGET THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A
SECOND SWD TRACK AREA SEEN BY MODELS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AREA
WITH 12Z GFS TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF IDEA OF SOME STRONG
CONVECTION/HVY RAINS ACROSS KS/OK INTO MO TUES/THURS.
ROSENSTEIN
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