189
FXUS02 KWBC 251910
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
309 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2008
VALID 12Z SAT JUN 28 2008 - 12Z WED JUL 02 2008
PRELIMINARY UPDATE...
THE MODELS INDICATE A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...WITH MANY OF THE AMPLITUDE AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES SEEN
DURING THE LAST FEWS DAYS WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST FINDING
SOME RESOLUTION ON THE 00Z CYCLE. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS ON THE
SLOW...DEEP END OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE MID LEVEL CENTER OF THIS
FEATURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CHOSE TO STICK
CLOSER TO THE MEAN CHARTS WITH THE UPDATE PACKAGE...WHICH HAVE THE
HEART OF THE TROUGH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...THE GFS AND ECMWF INCLUDED. THIS EMPHASIS FITS MIDSUMMER
CLIMATOLOGY THE BEST.
FINAL...
THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS...AS WELL AS THE ECWMF...HAVE PULLED THE
MID LEVEL CENTER OF THE EASTERN TROUGH NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY DAY 6...CLOSER TO THE MEAN GUIDANCE PREFERRED IN THE
UPDATE PACKAGE...SO MADE NO CHANGES FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE OF THE
FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7.
EXPECT MOST OF THE RAINFALL THIS PERIOD FROM THE GULF COAST TO
MAINE...EAST OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS. NO SIGNS OF THE FULL
ONSET OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON QUITE YET.
CISCO
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