640
FXUS02 KWBC 051746
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
145 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008
VALID 12Z TUE JUL 08 2008 - 12Z SAT JUL 12 2008
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH CLOSER ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD THAN OTHER RECENT
CYCLES...SHOWING ONE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA...AND ANOTHER HIGHER AMPLITUDE WAVE DIGGING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY DAYS 5 AND 6. THE 00Z UKMET SHOWS SLIGHTLY
LESS AMPLITUDE FOR BOTH TROUGHS...AS DO THE MOST RECENT ENSEMBLE
MEANS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE
CORRECTIVE CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR. THE GEM GLOBAL IS ON ITS
OWN WITH A FASTER...MORE WOUND UP VORTEX CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PRAIRIES OF CANADA LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UPDATED PRELIM ADJUSTMENTS WITH LATER GUIDANCE USES ECMWF DAYS 3-5
AND A 70/30 ECMWF ENS MEAN/ECMWF DAYS 6-7.
LATEST 12Z GFS REMAINS CLOSE TO ITS PRIOR RUN AND GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLES THRU DAY 6. BY DAY 7 SAT IT PUSHES A FRONT FASTER THRU
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HPC PREFERENCE TO STAY WITH THE PRIOR
MAJORITY ENSEMBLE SOLUTION LATE PERIOD.
TS BERTHA FORECAST TO BECOME HURRICANE MAY APPROACH THE BAHAMAS
AND SOUTHEAST SEABOARD NEXT WEEKEND UNDER MID LEVEL RIDGING. SEE
NHC DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES.
CISCO/ROSENSTEIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page