240
FXUS02 KWBC 061749
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
148 PM EDT SUN JUL 06 2008
VALID 12Z WED JUL 09 2008 - 12Z SUN JUL 13 2008
THE MODEL GUIDANCE FALLS INTO TWO WELL DEFINED CLUSTERS FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND UKMET SHOWING PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND THE 12Z/05/00Z 06 ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN...00Z GEFS MEAN...00Z ECMWF...AND 00Z GEM GLOBAL ALL
ESTABLISHING A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. WITH SUCH STANDOUT AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GEFS AND EUROPEAN CENTRE MEANS...ITS HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST
THEIR SCENARIO. THE GEM GLOBAL LOOKS OVERZEALOUS WITH THE
AMPLITUDE OF ITS TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST BY THE BEGINNING OF DAY
6...SO WILL RELY ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENS MEAN FOR
THE DETAILS OF THE PRELIMINARY PACKAGE...AT LEAST THROUGH DAY
5...WITH A MARKED SHIFT TOWARD THE MOST RECENT ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
THEREAFTER TO ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTY INHERENT AT THAT TIME RANGE.
12Z GFS DIFFERS LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. NO CHANGES DFOR
AFTERNOON FINALS FROM MORNING PRELIMS.
TS BERTHA STILL FORECAST TO BECOME HURRICANE THIS PERIOD WITH MOST
GUIDANCE TO THE RIGHT OF PRIOR RUNS EXCEPT CMC WHICH CAME
CONSIDERABLY LEFT. DAYS 6 AND 7 ARE AN AGREED UPON TRACK OF
NHC/HPC TAKING IT NWD IN THE MID LEVEL WEAKNESS SEEN BY MODELS AND
EMC/GFS ENS MID LEVEL MEANS BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. SEE NHC
DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES.
CISCO/ROSENSTEIN
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