246
FXUS02 KWBC 091809
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
208 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2008
VALID 12Z SAT JUL 12 2008 - 12Z WED JUL 16 2008
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE
PERIOD WITH ALL TAKING A STRONG LOW ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN PLAINS
SATURDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO ONT/QUEBEC BY MONDAY
BRINGING SIG HT FALLS SWD INTO THE ERN QUARTER OF CONUS. UPSTREAM
APPROACH OF AN ERN PAC TROF COMING INTO B.C AND THE PAC NW ALSO
WELL AGREED UPON. LEAD CANADIAN MID LEVEL LOW ABOUT 2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL BUT BY THE TIME IT MOVES EWD THE ERN CONUS
TROF IS ABOUT 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL.
12Z GFS DIFFERS LITTLE FROM PRIOR HPC PROGS WHILE CMC HAS LESS
AMPLITUDE THAN ITS PRIOR RUN IN THE WESTERLIES OVR SRN CANADA
ALLOWING FOR MORE FRONTAL PROGRESSION. GFS ENS MEANS REMAIN
SIMILAR. NO CHNAGES TO AFTN FINAL PROGS.
SOUTHWEST
SWRN CONUS MONSOON RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A REBOUND OF HIGH
PW VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL HVY RAINS.
EAST/CENTRAL
PRIOR TO THE MAIN HT FALLS COMING INTO WRN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK
HI RES ECMWF/CMC AND UKMET INDICANT A SIG MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF LOWER MID ATLC COAST WITH SFC
LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF NC. THIS SMALL SCALE COASTAL LOW MAY PRODUCE
SOME HVY COASTAL RAINS BEFORE BEING PICKED UP AND MOVING NWD UP
THE OFFSHORE ERN SEABOARD. COASTAL AREAS FROM FL NWD THRU SRN NEW
ENG WILL EXPERIENCE SWELL FROM OFF HURCN BERTHA THIS PERIOD. COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST FROM NEW ENG TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MON AND TUES WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSSURE BUILDING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OH VALLEY.
WEST
VERY WARM TO HOT CONDS WILL CONTINUE OVER WRN CONUS AS H850 TEMP
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 2-3 ABOVE NORMAL
MAINLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
PAC NW MON-WED AS THE MID LEVEL TROF MOVES INLAND. HOT CONDS WILL
CONT OVER CA.
PLAINS
SOMEWHAT BELOW AVG TEMPS AND HIGHER THAN AVG RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF KS/OK/NR TX INTO MO AND AR ALONG AND NR A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SUN-WED.
ROSENSTEIN
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