749
FXUS06 KWBC 171905
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 23 - 27 2008
TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES OF THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING THE 6-10 DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN ALASKA, WITH BELOW
NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO JUST OFF THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE CONUS. A RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA
WITH A TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE EAST. THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CONUS ARE BELOW NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, AND FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES DUE TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND AN EXPECTED ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON. TEMPERATURES IN ALASKA ARE EXPECTED TO ALSO BE BELOW
NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA, SUPPORTED MAINLY BY THE
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM
(NAEFS) AND ANALOGS. THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS ACTIVE
BUT STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS).
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)
PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 25 - 31 2008:
THE EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR WEEK 2 IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10
DAY MEAN FORECAST. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED
FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED HAVE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UNDER
THE RIDGE, HOWEVER THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION TOOL SUGGESTS NEAR TO ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AN EXPECTED
ACTIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, SO THE CONFIDENCE IN TODAYS TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA IS LOWER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
SOME TOOLS HAVE THE WESTERN TROUGH DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED
ON DAY 11...60 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS).
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)
PRECIPITATION FORECAST, AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL.
FORECASTER: D. UNGER
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21.
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE
TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE
DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE
CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19670726 - 19850711 - 19840707 - 19510702 - 19710714
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19840707 - 19670726 - 19850712 - 19670703 - 19510702
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 23 - 27, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A A
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 25 - 31, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA N N COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B B
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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