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FXUS06 KWBC 181905
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 24 - 28 2008
TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES OF THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING THE 6-10 DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN ALASKA, WITH BELOW
NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO JUST OFF THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE CONUS. A RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA
WITH A TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE EAST. THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CONUS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE
VARIABILITY IN THE PREDICTED STRENGTH OF THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
IN TODAYS SOLUTIONS THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO DIFFERENT
TREATMENT OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDED IN THE FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
IN THE NATIONS MIDSECTION AND MAKES THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS DIFFICULT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, AND FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DUE TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND AN EXPECTED
ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CURRENTLY IN THE
CARIBBEAN REQUIRES CLOSE WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT. RAINS FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY INFLUENCE SOUTHERN TEXAS EARLY IN THE
6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA, SUPPORTED MAINLY BY THE PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) AND ANALOGS.
TEMPERATURES IN ALASKA ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS).
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)
PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 26 - AUG 01, 2008:
THE EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR WEEK 2 IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10
DAY MEAN FORECAST. AS WITH THE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST, THERE IS MORE VARIABILITY
IN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN TROUGH AMONG TODAYS SOLUTIONS THAN
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED
FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE EASTERN TROUGH APPEARS AS
THOUGH IT MAY SUPPORT ACTIVE SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE PERIOD, SO PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHEAST IS UNCERTAIN. BOTH THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION TOOL AND ANALOGS
INDICATE MORE SOUTHWEST MONSOON ACTIVITY IN TODAYS SOLUTION THAN YESTERDAY, SO
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED HAVE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UNDER THE RIDGE. THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION TOOL SUGGESTS
NEAR TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING TO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE
ALASKAN PANHANDLE. SOME TOOLS HAVE THE WESTERN TROUGH DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED
ON DAY 11...50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS).
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)
PRECIPITATION FORECAST, AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL.
FORECASTER: D. UNGER
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21.
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE
TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE
DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE
CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19670726 - 19850710 - 19840707 - 19520728 - 19510702
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19670726 - 19840707 - 19850710 - 19510702 - 19630715
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 24 - 28, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 26 - AUG 01, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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