264
FXUS02 KWBC 221810
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
207 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008
VALID 12Z FRI JUL 25 2008 - 12Z TUE JUL 29 2008
THE FCST PATTERN DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE TIME FRAME REMAINS
STABLE... WITH A FAIRLY STRONG CNTRL NORTH AMERICA RIDGE ANCHORED
BETWEEN TROFS OVER THE NERN PACIFIC/NWRN NOAM AND ERN NOAM.
GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SOME DETAIL DIFFS BUT OVERALL MODEL/ENSEMBLE
SOLNS CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT THRU DAY
7. NOT COUNTING THE UNSUPPORTED CANADIAN SOLN BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD... THE PRIMARY FCST ISSUE IS MERELY THE DEPTH/AMPLITUDE OF
THE TWO TROFS. THE 00Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH
THE ERN NOAM TROF AT SOME FCST HRS... WHICH HAS BEEN THE GFS
TENDENCY OVER RECENT DAYS. 00Z MODEL/GEFS MEAN CONSENSUS AGREE
UPON A NERN PAC TROF WHOSE AXIS IS FARTHER EWD THAN THE 12Z/21
ECMWF AND EC ENSEMBLE MEAN BY LATE IN THE PERIOD... WITH GEFS MEAN
CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST DAY SUPPORTING THE 00Z SOLNS. LATEST 00Z
ECMWF ENS MEAN MUCH LIKE THE 00Z GFS ENS MEAN ADDING TO CONFIDENCE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. GFS ENS REMOP INDICATING A BETTER THAN AVG
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTABILITY WITH THE PATTERN THRU DAY
7. BASED ON THESE CONSIDERATIONS THE DAYS 3-7 FCST USES A DOMINANT
BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEFS/ECMWF MEANS TO REFLECT THE
BEST CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE AND TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALLER SCALE DETAIL
UNCERTAINTY.
ABOVE AVG TEMPS WILL CONT OVER MOST OF THE WEST WITH CONTD
MONSOONAL CONDS OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST. AVG TEMPS WILL
PREVAIL UNDER MOST OF THE ERN CONUS TROF WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG
TEMPS CONTG ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WWD INTO THE PLAINS AND BELOW AVG
OVER NEW ENG.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NRN
MEXICO AS DECAYING DOLLY SPREADS MOISTURE WWD TOWARDS THE SIERRA
THURSDAY INTO SAT.
RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page