370
FXUS06 KWBC 221905
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUL 28 - AUG 01, 2008
TODAYS AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED
500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO BE UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TROUGHS PROGGED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA/GULF OF ALASKA. A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECASTS ARE A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE MOST RECENT SOLUTIONS OF THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF ARE IN BASICALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN PROGS WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND PHASE OF THE
MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
RESPECT TO THEIR PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY,
ALONG THE WEST COAST, AND MOST OF ALASKA, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE TROUGH OVER ALASKA
SHOULD CAUSE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE. THE EASTERN
TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EAST COAST WHILE
SUBSIDENCE ON THE REARSIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MUCH OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUGGESTS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE MONSOONAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CAUSE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ABOVE
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER THE PANHANDLE OF ALASKA DUE TO ANOMALOUS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH. MUCH OF THE REST OF
ALASKA IS FORECAST TO HAVE NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION DUE TO ANOMALOUS
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE REARSIDE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT
OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN, NEURAL NET AND ANALOG
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS
ENSEMBLES, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, TELECONNECTIONS ON NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS AT 38N 74W AND AT 60N 133W, AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND
FORECAST.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)
PRECIPITATION TOOL, THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL, INSPECTION OF DAILY
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS, TELECONNECTIONS ON NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS AT 38N 74W AND AT 60N 133W, AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 30 - AUG 05, 2008:
THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE VERY LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING WEEK 2 COMPARED TO THEIR
FORECASTS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ARE IN
BASICALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH
TODAYS GFS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE EASTERN TROUGH. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND MOST OF ALASKA WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE LITTLE CHANGED FROM THOSE
DEPICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD EXPANDS
EASTWARD DURING WEEK 2, AND THE NORTHEAST TRANSITIONS FROM ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD TO NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR WEEK
2.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED
ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5 DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE
FORECAST TOOLS.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN, NEURAL NET AND ANALOG
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL,
THE KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, AND THE CPC AUTO
BLEND FORECAST.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)
PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL, THE NEURAL NET
PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, AND THE CPC AUTO BLEND
FORECAST.
FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21.
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE
TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE
DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE
CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800731 - 19910801 - 19640704 - 19580805 - 19690727
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800731 - 19910731 - 19690727 - 19580804 - 19640704
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 28 - AUG 01, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B A
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 30 - AUG 05, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS N B S TEXAS B N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N B NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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