350
FXUS06 KWBC 281905
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2008
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 03 - 07 2008
TODAYS AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
EXPECTED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
TROUGHS ARE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. A VERY STRONG POLAR LOW IS ALSO DEPICTED NORTH OF ALASKA. A RELATIVELY
STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE
MEAN FORECASTS ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE LONGWAVE FEATURES OVER THE CONUS
COMPARED TO THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN BEING A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SETS OF SOLUTIONS. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS GENERALLY HAVE MORE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS RELATIVE
TO THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN, SOUTHERN, AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF
THE CONUS, AND EXTREME NORTHERN ALASKA, WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
PROGGED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND MOST OF ALASKA. THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL CONUS. A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO COOLER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST REGION. THE POLAR LOW NORTH
OF ALASKA SHOULD CAUSE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE STATE. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE STATE UNDERNEATH GENERALLY POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE EASTERN TROUGH
SHOULD PRODUCE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST, WHILE
SUBSIDENCE ON THE REARSIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SUGGESTS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 50
PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND THE NORTH
AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE TOOL.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST
SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 05 - 11 2008:
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHS OVER
THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTION REFLECTS THESE OVERALL FEATURES BUT IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED RELATIVE TO
THE GFS. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM THE GFS SHOW FAIR TO POOR RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND ONLY REPRESENT A SMALL PERCENTAGE IN TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA
BLEND CHART. THIS BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS, AND WESTERN ALASKA. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS
FOR WEEK 2 ARE MOSTLY SIMILAR TO THOSE DEPICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES. AN
AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WAS INTRODUCED TO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE AS
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL OVER THE REGION DURING WEEK 2 RELATIVE TO THE 6 TO
10 DAY TIME FRAME.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11...50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND
25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND THE NORTH
AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE TOOL.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST
SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION FORECAST, AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION
TOOL.
FORECASTER: HANDEL
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21.
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE
TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE
DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE
CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800731 - 19910731 - 19700809 - 19690728 - 19640708
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800731 - 19910729 - 19700809 - 19640707 - 19690728
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 03 - 07, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N B
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 05 - 11, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA N B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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