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FXUS06 KWBC 291948
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2008
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 04 - 08 2008
TODAYS EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG
OVER THE VICINITY OF NORTH AMERICA, THOUGH TODAYS GFS-BASED ENSEMBLES HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY. THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS
PREDICT A FLATTENING OF THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS AND AN
EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES.
THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLES STILL RETAIN A PATTERN WHICH LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
THEIR RESPECTIVE RUNS FROM YESTERDAY. THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ALSO
DIFFER FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES IN THAT THEY PREDICT THE LARGE ARCTIC VORTEX NEAR
THE POLE TO BE CLOSER TO ALASKA, AND THEREFORE PLAYING A LARGER ROLE IN
AFFECTING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE. DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG TODAYS VARIOUS OPERATIONAL RUNS, IT WAS DECIDED
THAT ONLY ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD BE INCLUDED IN THE BLEND. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS PREDICTS A WESTERN US RIDGE AND EASTERN US TROUGH, AND A VERY STRONG RIDGE
OVER MUCH OF ALASKA. THE 6Z GFS HAS A SHIFTED WAVETRAIN, WITH A RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE YUKON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA, AND A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND
25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: NO PREFERENCE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, BECAUSE OF SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED FLOW PATTERN OVER
NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLES ON ONE HAND, AND THE ENSEMBLES
FROM THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN CENTERS ON THE OTHER. IT IS ALSO DUE TO
DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND THE NORTH
AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE TOOL.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST
SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL.
IT IS ALSO BASED ON 12Z GFS MODEL PRECIPITATION AND IMPLIED STORM TRACKS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 06 - 12 2008:
THE GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD, AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS
CONSISTENT IN PREDICTING A RELATIVELY FLAT PATTERN FROM THE GREAT BASIN
EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS SOLUTION IS QUITE
AMPLIFIED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND DEPICTS A TROUGH AXIS JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST, WHILE THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS SOLUTION HAS THIS SAME LONG WAVE FEATURE
HANGING BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. INCIDENTALLY, THIS LATTER SOLUTION AGREES
WITH THE DAILY EUROPEAN MODEL FORECAST FOR DAY 10, THE LATEST AVAILABLE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED
ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND THE NORTH
AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE TOOL.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST
SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION FORECAST, AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION
TOOL.
FORECASTER: ARTUSA
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21.
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE
TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE
DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE
CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800731 - 19700809 - 19910801 - 19580806 - 19820810
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800731 - 19700809 - 19910731 - 19640708 - 19690728
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 04 - 08, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING N N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N B
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 06 - 12, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B B
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN N B
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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