882
FXUS06 KWBC 311949
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2008
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 06 - 10 2008
TODAYS DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THEIR
PREDICTIONS OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN OVER THE VICINITY OF NORTH
AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE SMALLER, YET STILL
SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS BETWEEN THE HEIGHT PROGS THAT RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH JUST A GLANCING INSPECTION OF THE MAPS.
MOST SOLUTIONS DEPICT A RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER
ALASKA AND THE ADJOINING GULF OF ALASKA, WITH THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 0Z
ECMWF FOR EXAMPLE, PREDICTING AN INTENSE CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS CLEARLY SHOWS TWO SEPARATE STREAMS AT THESE
HIGHER LATITUDES, WITH AN ARCTIC JET ORIENTED ZONALLY OVER NORTHERN ALASKA, AND
A POLAR JET AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND THE WESTERN CONUS, THE GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS GENERALLY FAVOR
RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE ROCKIES, WHILE THE 0Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF POSITIONS
THIS FEATURE FURTHER WEST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. IN ADDITION, YESTERDAYS 12Z
ECMWF ANTICIPATES AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, WHEREAS THE
OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS HAS IT PROGRESSING SLOWER, AND FORECASTS IT OVER NORTHEAST
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. IN THE EAST, THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A BROAD MEAN TROUGH, WITH ONE EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BETWEEN 65W AND 70W, AND A NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING DOWN OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THE 6Z
OPERATIONAL GFS AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ARE THE MOST AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS TODAY
FAVORING A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST, A RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST, AND
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY REGION.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...20 PERCENT
OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, BECAUSE OF THE MODEL-TO-MODEL VARIATIONS NOTED ABOVE.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND THE NORTH
AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE TOOL. RECENTLY OBSERVED
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CONUS WERE ALSO CONSIDERED, AS WELL AS COASTAL OCEAN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST
SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL.
IT IS ALSO BASED ON 12Z GFS MODEL PRECIPITATION AND IMPLIED STORM TRACKS.
RECENTLY OBSERVED RAINFALL PATTERNS ACROSS THE CONUS WERE ALSO CONSIDERED.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 08 - 14 2008:
THE GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL 500-MB HEIGHT PROG INDICATES
NEGATIVE HEIGHT DEPARTURES OF 30 TO 60 METERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, BUT
ELSEWHERE THE PREDICTED ANOMALIES ARE VERY SMALL. THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG
ALSO DEPICTS A TROUGH OVER ALASKA. LOWERING 500-MB HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE, WITH RISING HEIGHTS ANTICIPATED
ALONG THE BERING SEACOAST. THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS, THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC 6Z GFS RUN SEEMS TO BE OVERLY
AMPLIFIED, AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS A SOMEWHAT FLATTER PATTERN
THAN THE OTHER MODELS OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30
PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT
OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND THE NORTH
AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE TOOL.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST
SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION FORECAST, AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION
TOOL. IT IS ALSO BASED ON 12Z GFS MODEL PRECIPITATION AND IMPLIED STORM TRACKS.
FORECASTER: ARTUSA
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21.
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE
TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE
DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE
CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19580806 - 19690814 - 19630720 - 19570805 - 19800801
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19690813 - 19580806 - 19800731 - 19910804 - 19700809
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 06 - 10, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N B ARIZONA N N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA A A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL N N
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 08 - 14, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH N B ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA N A OHIO N N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN N B RHODE IS N B
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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