176
FXUS02 KWBC 011801
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
159 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2008
VALID 12Z MON AUG 04 2008 - 12Z FRI AUG 08 2008
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD WITH A
GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE FROM MID NATION RIDGING WITH MEAN TROFS
ALONG THE NRN CORNERS OF CONUS AND ADJACENT CANADA TO AN ERN PAC
TROF/ROCKIES HIGH PLAINS RIDGING AND AN ANOMALOUS ERN CONUS TROF.
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES HAVE SETTLED IN TO AN AGREEMENT ON THE
AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THESE FEATURES.
B.C. TROF AND CLOSED LOW MOVES EWD TO THE HUDSON/JAMES BAY AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN DROPS SEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A DEEP BROAD TROF EXTENSION SWD. EASTWARD A TROF OVER
ERN CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND LIFTS OUT MON AND TUES WITH CENTRAL
U.S RIDGING BUILDING EWD. A NERN PAC CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE TO SERN
AK LATE WEEK AND EXPAND ITS TROF WELL SWD DOWN THE PAC NORTHWEST
AND CA COAST. ALL THIS IN TURN ALLOWS HTS TO BUILD OVER WRN CONUS
AND ESP THE ROCKIES WED GRADUALLY SHIFTING THIS RIDGE EWD TO THE
HIGH PLAINS.
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENS FORMED THE BASIS FOR MORNING PRELIMS AND CONT
THIS AFTN FOR FINALS.
LATEST GFS ENS MEANS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS ARE VERY SIMILAR THRU THE
PERIOD. NO CHANGES FRO AFTN FINALS.
H500 HTS AND HIGH H850 TEMPS BUILD EWD AFTER A MID LEVEL TROF
LIFTOUT OVER THE NORTHEAST MON-TUES WITH STANDARDIZED POSITIVE
ANOMALIES IN THE 3.5 TO 4 RANGE. THIS IS SHORTLIVED AS HT FALLS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND THEN ERN NRN TIER BRINGS IN A TROF ABOUT 2.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL BRINGING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE LAKES REGION AND NEAR NORMAL ELSW OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. WWD BUILDING HTS OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST AND ROCKIES
WILL BRING WELL ABOVE AVG TEMPS TUES-SAT.
MONSOONAL RAINS CONT IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH FRONTAL RAINFALL IN THE
NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY WEAK SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST WITH
FRONTAL PROGRESSION BY LATE WEEK.
ROSENSTEIN
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