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FXUS06 KWBC 011937
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2008
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 07 - 11 2008
TODAYS DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THEIR PREDICTIONS OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN OVER THE VICINITY OF
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. MOST SOLUTIONS DEPICT A
RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER ALASKA AND THE ADJOINING
GULF OF ALASKA, WITH VARIATIONS ON A FAIRLY INTENSE (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR)
CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE WESTERN
CONUS, THE GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS GENERALLY FAVOR RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
ROCKIES, WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS POSITION THIS FEATURE
SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST. IN THE EAST, THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE COAST, WITH THE MEAN POSITION SHIFTING A BIT
AS INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES DIVE DOWN OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST, AND OLDER DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...25 PERCENT
OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN (TIED)
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, DUE TO MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND THE NORTH
AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE TOOL. RECENTLY OBSERVED
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CONUS WERE ALSO CONSIDERED, AS WELL AS COASTAL OCEAN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST
SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL.
IT IS ALSO BASED ON 6Z GFS MODEL PRECIPITATION AND IMPLIED STORM TRACKS.
RECENTLY OBSERVED RAINFALL PATTERNS ACROSS THE CONUS WERE ALSO CONSIDERED.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 09 - 15 2008:
THE GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD. THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD TO THE ALASKA PANHANDLE REGION AND COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO REINFORCE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TROUGH WHICH USUALLY LIES NEAR
THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS. THE DETERMINISTIC 0Z GFS
SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE OVERAMPLIFIED, GIVEN THE OTHER MODEL RUNS AND THE TIME
OF YEAR. THIS 0Z GFS RUN ALSO PREDICTS RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ALASKA, WHICH IS NOT SUPPORTED BY ITS ENSEMBLE OR ANY OF THE OTHER MODEL RUNS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOMINAL SUPPORT FROM THE 6Z GFS RUN.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED
ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND THE NORTH
AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE TOOL.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG AND NEURAL NET
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST
SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION FORECAST, AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION
TOOL. IT IS ALSO BASED ON 12Z GFS MODEL PRECIPITATION AND IMPLIED STORM TRACKS.
FORECASTER: ARTUSA
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21.
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE
TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE
DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE
CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19570805 - 19690813 - 19580806 - 19640815 - 19540724
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19690814 - 19580806 - 19800801 - 19910804 - 19570805
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 07 - 11, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH N B ARIZONA N N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA N A OHIO N N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B N
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N B
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL B A
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 09 - 15, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA N N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN N B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N B
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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