450
FXUS06 KWBC 041920
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2008
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 10 - 14 2008
TODAYS DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN REGION DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ALL
AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGHS AT UPPER
LEVELS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST. 500 HPA HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS IN THE LAST
FOUR GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS IN
COMPARISON HAVE A FLATTER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL 500 HPA
HEIGHTS THERE. THE ECMWF BASED ENSEMBLE BRINGS THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST, WHILE THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE HAS A SLIGHTLY LESS SHALLOW
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. OVERALL THERE ARE ONLY SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE
500-HPA HEIGHT MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OVER THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE MOST PROBABLE FOR WEST TEXAS AND ALONG THE GULF COAST, FLORIDA
AND THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FROM
THE SOUTHWEST NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A STRONG
MONSOON EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. ABOVE MEDIAN RAINFALL SHOULD EXTEND FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MEAN LOCATION OF THE FRONT. PARTS OF
THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THERE.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY
8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...40 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE TOOLS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE
TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST
PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 12 - 18 2008:
THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST TROUGHS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN COAST AND OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS IN ALL ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HIGH RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM
THE LAST FOUR CYCLES. GENERALLY THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS
FORECASTED FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST.
THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD BRINGING ABOVE
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE
TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST
PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
FORECASTER: COLLINS
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21.
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE
TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE
DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE
CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19540724 - 19620715 - 19690801 - 19690727 - 19860730
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19540724 - 19620714 - 19690801 - 19570728 - 19690727
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 10 - 14, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A A WYOMING N N
UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N B
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B A
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 12 - 18, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A N WYOMING N N
UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N B
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N B
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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