812
FXUS06 KWBC 051929
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT TUE AUG 05 2008
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 11 - 15 2008
TODAYS DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN REGION DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ALL
AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE A RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH AT UPPER
LEVELS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA. ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
IN ALL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. TODAYS ECMWF BASED ENSEMBLE BRINGS THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THAN THE LAST FOUR
CYCLES OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE, SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE AVAILABLE FOR
YESTERDAYS FORECAST, WHILE TODAYS CANADIAN ENSEMBLE PLACES THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH FURTHER EAST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES. ALL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, HOWEVER 500 HPA HEIGHTS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS IN THE RECENT GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS IN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. UNDER BELOW NORMAL UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST CONUS. DUE TO AN EXPECTED
STRONG NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN GREAT PLAINS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST PROBABLE FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS AND
ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. ABOVE MEDIAN RAINFALL
SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MEAN LOCATION OF THE
FRONT IN THIS REGION. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA AND THE
ALASKAN PANHANDLE SHOULD SEE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
THERE.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY
7...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT
OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: NO PREFERENCE. 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TIED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE TOOLS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE
TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST
PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 13 - 19 2008:
TODAYS GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST TROUGHS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN COAST AND OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE FORECAST FLOW PATTERN.
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS HIGH RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM THE LAST FOUR CYCLES MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT DEEPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. ANALOGS TO THE OFFICIAL
BLEND INDICATE A RETROGRESSION OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH CENTERING THE TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS
FORECAST FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD ARE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST, THOUGH
PROBABILITIES ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FORECAST. ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS AGAIN FORECAST FOR THE MONSOON REGION AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST. AREAS OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE US CANADIAN BORDER AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL JET. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UNDER THE TROUGH. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO EXTEND FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE 8-14 DAY
PERIOD RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED
ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE
TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST
PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
FORECASTER: COLLINS
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21.
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE
TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE
DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE
CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19540725 - 19620716 - 19860730 - 19690801 - 19540730
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19540724 - 19620715 - 19690801 - 19860730 - 19930811
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 11 - 15, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N B
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B A
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 13 - 19, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A N WYOMING N N
UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B B MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N B
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N B
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page