880
FXUS06 KWBC 071951
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT THU AUG 07 2008
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 13 - 17 2008
TODAYS DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN REGION DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ALL
AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE A RELATIVELY DEEP BROAD TROUGH AT
UPPER LEVELS OVER THE BERING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA, WITH AN EXTENSION OF THIS
TROUGH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE ONLY A WEAK TROUGH OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND
ABOVE NORMAL MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS, SIMILAR TO THE 0Z CANADIAN AND 12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS IN
ALL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE MOST RECENT AVAILABLE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHTLY DEEPER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH THAN THE
LATEST 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. ALL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH 500 HPA HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER PARTS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE RECENT CANADIAN, ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS.
IN THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THERE IS RETROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS FROM YESTERDAYS OFFICIAL FORECAST PLACING THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. UNDER BELOW NORMAL UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, EXCEPT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH UNDER SOUTHERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW, WHERE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE PROBABLE. DUE TO AN EXPECTED ACTIVE NORTH AMERICAN
MONSOON, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS. NEAR MEDIAN RAINFALL IS FORECAST
FOR THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST
PROBABLE FOR WEST TEXAS, ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO FLORIDA, AND NORTHWARD ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST AS FAR AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ABOVE MEDIAN RAINFALL SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MEAN LOCATION OF
THE FRONT IN THIS REGION. ABOVE MEDIAN RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA ALONG THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK AND IS
ALSO FORECAST FOR THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY
7...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT
OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: NO PREFERENCE. 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN TIED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE TOOLS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE
TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST
PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 15 - 21 2008:
TODAYS 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD
FORECAST A BROAD TROUGH FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A WEAK
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN COAST SIMILAR TO THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
RETROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE FORECAST FLOW PATTERN IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS CONTINUES THE TREND THAT APPEARED IN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS MODEL
FORECASTS. TODAYS 0Z AND 6Z GFS HIGH RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS FROM THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS MAINTAIN A DEEPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS IN THE
OFFICIAL BLEND IS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WEST OF ITS LOCATION IN THE 6-10
DAY FORECAST. THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS FORECAST FOR THE 8-14
DAY PERIOD HAVE SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST, THOUGH
PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FORECAST, AND THERE IS
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE EAST COAST AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NEAR
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON REGION. ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MEAN FRONT LOCATION, AS WELL AS ALONG THE EAST COAST AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UNDER THE TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLE FOR WEST TEXAS, ALONG MOST OF THE GULF COAST INTO
FLORIDA, AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED
ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE
TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST
PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
FORECASTER: COLLINS
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21.
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE
TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE
DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE
CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19540725 - 19540730 - 19800821 - 19740728 - 19690801
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19540725 - 19540730 - 19690801 - 19620717 - 19740727
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 13 - 17, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N N
UTAH N B ARIZONA N B COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 15 - 21, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A B WYOMING N B
UTAH N B ARIZONA N B COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA N B IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA B N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N B
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N B
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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