852
FXUS06 KWBC 081905
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT FRI AUG 08 2008
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 14 - 18 2008
TODAYS DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN REGION DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ALL
AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE A RELATIVELY DEEP BROAD TROUGH AT
UPPER LEVELS OVER THE BERING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA. WITH A RIDGE FORECAST OVER
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, 500 HPA HEIGHTS HAVE RISEN OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN ALL OF TODAYS MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS RELATIVE
TO THE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. A TROUGH IS
FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS IN ALL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS,
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN THE MODEL 6-10 DAY FORECASTS ALL OF THIS WEEK. THE MOST
RECENT AVAILABLE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AGAIN MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY DEEPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CENTERED FURTHER EAST THAN THE LATEST 0Z AND 6Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. IN THE OFFICIAL BLEND INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT AVAILABLE
CANADIAN, ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS, THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. UNDER BELOW NORMAL UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS, BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS,
EXCEPT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH UNDER SOUTHERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW, WHERE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE PROBABLE. DUE TO AN EXPECTED ACTIVE NORTH AMERICAN
MONSOON, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS. ABOVE MEDIAN RAINFALL IS
FORECAST FOR THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
MOST PROBABLE FOR WEST TEXAS, ALONG THE GULF COAST, AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AS FAR AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ABOVE MEDIAN RAINFALL SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MEAN LOCATION OF
THE FRONT IN THIS REGION. ABOVE MEDIAN RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE ALONG THE
FORECAST STORM TRACK WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THIS REGION.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY
7...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT
OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: NO PREFERENCE. 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, TIED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE TOOLS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE
TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST
PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 16 - 22 2008:
TODAYS 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD
FORECAST A BROAD TROUGH FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SIMILAR TO
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
RETROGRESSION AND DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING
THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, WHICH CONTINUES THE TREND THAT APPEARED IN THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS MODEL FORECASTS. THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS IN THE OFFICIAL BLEND IS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WEST OF ITS LOCATION IN THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST. THE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS FORECAST FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD HAVE
SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST, THOUGH THE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS ARE LOWER IN THE 8-14 DAY
PERIOD FORECAST, AND THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE EAST COAST
AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NEAR MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE
SOUTHWEST MONSOON REGION. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MEAN FRONT LOCATION, AS WELL AS
ALONG THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST
LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UNDER THE TROUGH.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLE FOR WEST TEXAS, ALONG THE GULF COAST
INTO FLORIDA, AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE
TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CDC REFORECAST
PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
FORECASTER: COLLINS
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21.
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE
TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE
DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE
CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800822 - 19540725 - 19540731 - 19570801 - 19660722
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19540725 - 19540731 - 19800821 - 19690801 - 19570801
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 14 - 18, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING N N
UTAH N B ARIZONA N B COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA N B IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N B
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 16 - 22, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING N B
UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N B
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N B
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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