750
FXUS06 KWBC 141905
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR AUG 20 - 24 2008
TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE AREA HANGS ON OVER THE CENTRAL STATES, AND CONTRIBUTES TO AN AREA
OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-NORMAL RAINS. THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
TROUGH HAS EXPANDED INTO THE NORTHWEST, RESULTING IN A FORECAST OF ABOVE-NORMAL
RAINS FOR THAT REGION. THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BE VERY ACTIVE. MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT SOME KIND OF TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE WILL VISIT THE
FLORIDA-CUBA AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THIS SHOULD PUMP UP THE RAINFALL TOTALS
ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FAVORS A MOIST FLOW OF AIR OUT
OF THE GULF, AND A LARGE AREA OF WETNESS IS SHOWN ON THE FORECAST.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20
PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS ENSEMBLE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST, NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS, AND THE DAILY
FORECASTS FROM THE MOST RECENT GFS RUNS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 22 - 28 2008:
FOR WEEK 2 THE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR THE 6
TO 10 DAY PERIOD, BUT WITH WEAKER FORECAST ANOMALIES. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS. THE FORECAST
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW A BREAK BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE AREAS
CENTERED IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, REFLECTING THE LINGERING IMPRINT FROM
THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS VERY SLOW TO DISSIPATE. THE
RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 40 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...30 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 30 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 10.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5 DUE TO CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND THE FORECAST TOOLS.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY FORECASTS, AND DAILY WEATHER FROM THE MOST RECENT GFS MODEL RUNS.
FORECASTER: HE
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21.
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE
TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE
DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE
CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19680827 - 19640816 - 19710825 - 19910804 - 19910726
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19640816 - 19680826 - 19570725 - 19910808 - 19710824
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 20 - 24, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N
UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 22 - 28, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N N NEVADA N B
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N
UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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