074
FXUS01 KWBC 192024
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
424 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
VALID 00Z WED AUG 20 2008 - 12Z THU AUG 21 2008
TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND WILL THEN EVENTUALLY EMERGE
JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS ITS TRAVELS OVER LAND WHILE STILL
MAINTAINING ITS TROPICAL STORM STATUS. AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE...VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BOMBARD THE EASTERN HALF OF
FLORIDA WHILE PACKING IN STRONG WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL TROPICAL
STORM FORCE GUSTS. WHILE ALREADY HAVING A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
OVER 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...MORE OF THE
SAME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PLEASE VISIT THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEBSITE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE UP
TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF FAY.
AWAY FROM THE TROPICS...A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL COMING OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL DRIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT AS A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONSHORE
TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL COME IN THE FORM OF SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL. THE COOLER AIR ARRIVING INTO THE REGION WILL BE WELCOME
AFTER THE NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WHICH AFFECTED THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS PAST WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S UNDERNEATH THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND RAINY CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES
THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
A CUT-OFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
DOMINANT WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DURING THE
PAST WEEK...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS ALREADY BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
RECORD COOL AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL. ON ITS PROGRESSION TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST...THE
SYSTEM HAS COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE STREAMING ONSHORE OUT OF
THE WESTERN GULF TO PRODUCE A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE. DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE
LOW CENTER WILL HELP PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
RUBIN-OSTER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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