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FXUS01 KWBC 310750
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
350 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008
VALID 12Z SUN AUG 31 2008 - 00Z TUE SEP 02 2008
ALL EYES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ARE ON AN HURRICANE GUSTAV
WHICH JUST CROSSED WESTERN CUBA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE NEARLY ACHIEVED CATEGORY 5 STATUS AND
SHOULD FLUCTUATE BETWEEN A CATEGORY 3 AND 4 HURRICANE ON ITS
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD LOUISIANA. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES ON SUNDAY AS OUTER RAIN
BANDS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ONSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. BY THE
FOLLOWING DAY...TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
THIS REGION EARLY IN THE MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION
LOOMS OFFSHORE. ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT MODEL
FORECASTS...GUSTAV SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL MIDDAY ON LABOR DAY. FOR
THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON HURRICANE GUSTAV...PLEASE VISIT
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEBSITE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE UNITED STATES...THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A STRENGTHENING TROUGH OVER THE
WEST...WHILE A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS A REGION EXTENDING
FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BEGINNING IN
THE WEST...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL TAKE
PLACE AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE WEST. WITH PLENTY OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP
IGNITE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD RESIDE ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL
ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. BESIDES THE RAINFALL
THREAT...DRASTICALLY COOLER AIR WILL FILL IN DROPPING TEMPERATURES
IN UPWARDS OF 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. FURTHERMORE...ENOUGH COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT THAT
SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF IDAHO...MONTANA...AND WYOMING MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ON LABOR DAY.
IN ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE NATION WILL BRING EXTENSIVE WARMTH TO MANY AREAS
FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EASILY REACH THE 90S WITH LOWS REMAINING IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THESE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
ELSEWHERE...AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL
KEEP THE MOISTURE CONTENT HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED
BY THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO MONDAY KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S.
RUBIN-OSTER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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