976
FXUS01 KWBC 010814
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
414 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008
VALID 12Z MON SEP 01 2008 - 00Z WED SEP 03 2008
AS HURRICANE GUSTAV NEARS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...THE
OUTER RAINBANDS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY
MOVED ONSHORE. CURRENTLY A WEAK CATEGORY 3 TROPICAL
CYCLONE...GUSTAV SHOULD REMAIN A STRONG CATEGORY 2 OR WEAK
CATEGORY 3 SYSTEM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AROUND LUNCH TIME ACROSS
THE LOUISIANA COAST. AS THIS POWERFUL TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND...THE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE NUMEROUS WITH FLOODING
ASSOCIATED WITH A 10 TO 15 FOOT STORM SURGE ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN
SOME OF THE OUTER BANDS. NEARLY 24 HOURS AFTER LANDFALL...BEING
OFF THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO WATERS WILL TAKE A TOLL ON GUSTAV AS
HE WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. BY
MIDWEEK...THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL COME TO A HALT
AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION
WILL LEAVE GUSTAV BEHIND. CONSEQUENTLY...CONTINUAL MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ARKLATEX BY TUESDAY EVENING.
PLEASE VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEBSITE AT
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS MAJOR WEATHER EVENT.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FOR LATE SUMMER WILL
BRING AN AUTUMNAL-LIKE AIR MASS TO MANY AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
ROCKIES BEFORE EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. ON LABOR DAY...MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING
WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S WHILE
JUST EAST OF THESE REGIONS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...MID TO
UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMONPLACE. IN ADDITION TO THE DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE FALLS...PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT. WITH THIS ABNORMALLY CHILLY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF EASTERN IDAHO...WESTERN
MONTANA...AND WESTERN WYOMING CAN EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO FALL WHILE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL BE FREE OF ANY POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHICH WILL BE WET IN RESPONSE TO A MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW OFF THE GULF STREAM IN ADDITION TO ANY RAINFALL WITH GUSTAVS
OUTER RAINBANDS.
UNDERNEATH THIS BUILDING RIDGE...HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT
TWO DAYS WILL BE IN THE 80S AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST
WITH SOME ISOLATED 90S OVER THE OHIO RIVER AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
RUBIN-OSTER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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