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FXUS06 KWBC 011907
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 07 - 11 2008
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED LARGE SCALE FEATURES OF THE
500-HPA CIRCULATION. THE MODELS PREDICT A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.
THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST AND ADJACENT AREAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. A
WEAK RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS INTO
FLORIDA AND THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FAVORS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE ROCKIES, AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. AREAS ALONG THE
EAST COAST WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST BECAUSE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ENERGIZED WITH
MOISTURE FROM BOTH HURRICANES GUSTAV AND HANNA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE EAST COAST SOMETIME AROUND DAY 7, WHICH LEAVES A FULL DAY
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IN THE FIRST DAY OR TWO OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN NEW ENGLAND.
TOOLS SUGGEST CONTINUED ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND IN FLORIDA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS PREDICTION IS INCREASED BY
THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 WHICH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER EXPECTS TO DEVELOP INTO A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TRACK HAS THIS SYSTEM AT ABOUT 24N AND 69W AND MOVING
WESTWARD ON DAY 5. TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN ALASKA ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL AHEAD OF A TROUGH FORECAST TO BE OVER AND JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS,
WITH CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ENHANCED ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25
PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5 DUE TO GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE AUTO TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN
ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION
FORECAST, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY FORECASTS, AND STORM TRACKS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 09 - 15 2008:
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE 8-14 DAY MEAN 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. THE PREDICTED PATTERN IS
SIMILAR TO THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS EASTWARD UNDER A BROAD TROUGH. THE UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER BETWEEN THE 6-10
DAY AND WEEK TWO PERIODS AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THIS SHOULD BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO ALASKA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FORECAST FOR THE CONUS FOR
WEEK-TWO ARE QUITE SIMILAR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD SINCE THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
REMAINS VERY SIMILAR AND THE TROPICAL STORM ACTIVITY IN THE ATLANTIC IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY WITH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATION FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY FORECASTS AND THE AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
FORECASTER: UNGER
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
SEPTEMBER 18
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE
TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE
DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE
CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19810903 - 19800822 - 19680915 - 19710913 - 19660817
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19810903 - 19680914 - 19710912 - 19680908 - 19870914
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 07 - 11, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B B WYOMING B B
UTAH N B ARIZONA A N COLORADO B B
NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 09 - 15, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA N B WYOMING N B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO N B
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N B
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N B
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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