027
FXUS02 KWBC 071822
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
220 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008
VALID 12Z WED SEP 10 2008 - 12Z SUN SEP 14 2008
HURRICANE IKE IS FORECAST BY THE NHC TO STRENGTHEN WHILE TRACKING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WED-FRI. THIS TRACK WOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY THREATEN MARITIME INTERESTS AND COULD LEAD TO MAJOR
LANDFALL OVER THE WRN GULF COAST STATES NEXT WEEKEND. IKE IS A
DANGEROUS SYSTEM SO PLEASE MONITOR INFO FROM THE NHC FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION. THE TROPICS ARE AGAIN ACTIVE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AS
WELL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL THAT NOW LOOMS
SOUTH OF BAJA.
OTHERWISE...NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE MID-HIGHER LATITUDES OF
NOAM BECOMES QUITE COMPLEX AS EARLY AS MIDWEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRIES TO DIG INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS LEAD IMPULSES SHEAR
MORE PROGRESSIVELY EWD ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN
US IN FLATTER FLOW. WITHIN THE FULL ENVELOPE SOLUTIONS...MORE
PROGRESSIVE EVOLUTIONS FROM THE 06/12 UTC GFS AND 00/12 UTC UKMET
DO HAVE SOME POTENTIAL CONSIDERING THEIR SHORT WAVELENGTH SPACING
BETWEEN EMBEDDED IMPULSES. HOWEVER...THESE CONFLICT SLOWER
SOLUTIONS OF THE 00 AND 12 UTC ECMWF AND CANADIAN RUNS AND THE 00
UTC GFS THAT ALLOW MORE WRN US DIGGING TO THE LEE OF AN AMPLIFIED
ERN PAC MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE 00 UTC GFS IS ACTUALLY CLOSER
TO THE MIDDLE OF SYSTEM PROGRESSIONS HEADING THROUGH LATE
WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND AND MAY BE THE MOST REASONABLE SOLUTION WE HAVE
FOR NOW OVERALL...BUT THESE DIFFERENCES MAY LOOM SIGNIFICANT WITH
RESPECT TO ANY EVENTUAL INTERACTION FROM THE MID-LATITUDES NEXT
WEEKEND WITH IKE.
OVERALL...THE FINAL HPC PROGS MAINTAIN GOOD CONTINIUTY WITH PRELIM
HPC GUIDANCE.
SCHICHTEL
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