822
FXUS01 KWBC 102055
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
455 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
VALID 00Z THU SEP 11 2008 - 12Z FRI SEP 12 2008
HURRICANE IKE...IS CURRENTLY CHURNING AWAY IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...NORTHWEST OF CUBA. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY
SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM. IKE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD INTO
TEXAS AND RETAINING ITS HURRICANE STRENGTH. PLEASE REFER TO THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON HURRICANE
IKE.
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. CONVECTION WILL FIRE UP IN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
AFTERNOONS...WHEN DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES THIS
ALREADY BUOYANT AIRMASS. HEADING WEST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL STEER LOBES OF ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO NEW
MEXICO/TEXAS...AND LATER INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE ENSUING
48 HR PERIOD..RESULTING IN A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. A SLUG OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST...AMPLIFYING THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...WILL PROVE TO BE AN
EFFICIENT GENERATOR OF CONVECTION ACROSS ARIZONA AND THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. LAST BUT NOT LEAST...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BRINGING A POOL OF VERY UNSTABLE
COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE PEAKS OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
SEE SNOW...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CONVECTION.
SZATANEK
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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